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Thoughts on Iran

April 15, 2010

Interesting point ( to comment from previous post), although I have a few things to add about Iran.  There is no evidence that they have a nuclear weapons program, according the best and latest IAEA and western intelligence reports.  Most likely they will use their nuclear program as a ‘threshold capacity’ option, i.e. just like Japan, that is having the technology and materials to start and complete a weapons program on short notice, but staying short of actually having one, and thus remaining within the legal confines and obligations of the Nuclear-Non proliferation Treaty, under which they are entitled to the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful use without any other countries interference.  Israel on the other hand is widely known to have a nuclear weapons arsenal of 100-200 warheads, although they have never officially confirmed nor denied the existence of such a program. 

They are also not signers of the NPT, along with India, Pakistan, and North Korea (the first two never were and both have nuclear weapons, declared and tested.  North Korea was a signatory, but developed a program in secret and then dropped out of the NPT before testing a bomb in 2007.)  Although Israel condemns the nuclear threat of Iran on a regular basis, it is actually the country that has the stockpile of weapons and threatens to attack Iran on a seemingly monthly basis. 

The idea that Iran is a threat to the region and will cause utter chaos if they develop nuclear weapons is quite hypocritical in this regard.  In fact, Iran has been the driving force for numerous attempts to pass resolutions through the UN the declare the mideast a ‘nuclear weapons free zone’ a move that both Israel and its US overlord has blocked on each occasion.  The reasons are all too obvious. 

This call by Iran for a mideast free of nuclear weapons is not only aimed at ensuring a safer region, but also at Israel and the US, two major adversaries that currently have hundreds of nuclear weapons in the mideast, within Israel and on US naval vessels that are on permanent patrol in the Persian Gulf just south of Iran.  The only reason Iran would consider developing weapons of this sort ( and really, they would be quite exceptional if did not seriously consider it, some policy analysts in the US have said they would be crazy not to) is to an act as a deterrent to the threat imposed by US or Israeli first strike capabilities. 

The suggestion that Iran harbors possible first strike fantasies is preposterous, as Chomsky rightly points out the country would be vaporized if it so much as began even load a war head on to a missile.  If Iran does achieve nuclear weapon capabilities, one can be sure that Saudi Arabia will not be far behind, with the possibility that Syria joins the picture as well.  We then have a situation where the picture in Asia becomes much more dangerous, where, from west to east,Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria (possibly), Iran, Pakistan, India, and the US all have nuclear weapons in the region.  Obviously proliferation is a bad thing and brings us all closer to the brink of mutual destruction, but to point the finger at Iran and claim they are the ones who are bringing us down this path and are a threat to the world is sheer hypocrisy and deception. 

It is Israel that is the only nuclear armed state in the region (while we also remember that the US has nuclear armed forces in the region) and it is Israel that is the root cause of any subsequent escalation and proliferation that might take place.  When Israel bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor as Osirak in the early 1980’s they claimed it was to stop Saddam Hussein’s covert nuclear program.  But as all evidence and testimony has shown, it did not stop his program, it actually INITIATED it!  It was the attack by Israel that convinced Saddam of the necessity of starting a secret nuclear weapons program.  Could this also be the case with a possible future bombing of Iran by Israel? 

 Remember Iran is still a signatory to the NPT and is obliged by law to follow its precepts, including the admission of IAEA officials to the county’s nuclear sites for inspection purposes.  But how far will Iran be pushed?  It makes sense for the country to stay within the NPT for as long as possible, especially if it is telling the truth in regards its nuclear intentions (and all indications show that it is), but it is not to difficult to imagine that if Iran sees itself as coming under considerable hardships, such as increased economic sanctions and openness of its nuclear sites for international inspections (something that the US and Israel do not even come close to allowing), then it will decide that being a signatory to the NPT is hurting it more than it is helping it. 

 In this scenario Iran pulls out of the treaty, making the likely of an attack on the county increase, but also increasing the chances that a nuclear test blast may disturb the deserts of western Asia.

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